var-metrics
Treasury · on-chain—
Added last 30D—
Days tracked—
Live · Treasury read from the Arbitrum wallet
Protocol Value Monitor
24H Volume —
Open Interest —
Wallet 0x5e91…d645
LIVE DATA
On-chain treasury accumulation—
Net USDC held on-chain. This is the clearest observable record of protocol value accumulating in the treasury wallet.
Daily VAR News · X-ready protocol update
Syncing Variational's current state…
Combining net treasury wallet inflow with live volume and open interest.
Waiting for live sources
SYNCING
Numbers behind the postEvery figure quoted above, with its source and comparison window.
Gross spreads · estimated——Before costs · not protocol revenue
Treasury net inflow———
OLP remainder after estimated hedging costs——Estimate: last 25 weeks of biweekly reports, gross-spread-weighted cost rate applied. Rewards not deducted.
Cost estimate sources
Rolling 24H volume
—
Official live stats
Trading activity now
Live open interest
—
Official live stats
Capital active in positions
Treasury added · 7D
—
— per ET day
Net change in the on-chain USDC balance
Protocol treasury held
—
— over trailing 30D
Live on-chain balance
X-ready post · fundamentals0 / 280
Syncing the daily brief…
Verify the numbersOpen the primary or methodology source for each metric
Treasury balance + ET net inflow
Live USDC held by the protocol treasury. Daily net inflow is the wallet balance change between exact 00:00 ET closes; it excludes OLP PnL and may include non-revenue transfers.
Latest completed ET close
Rolling 24H volume + live OI
Current rolling volume and open interest returned by Variational's official public stats endpoint.
Waiting for live API timestamp
Historical volume + OI
Daily UTC observations used for comparisons and the historical market-activity chart.
Waiting for latest daily observation
Revenue share + buy-&-burn
Daily gross spreads are estimated from treasury inflow and the period allocation rate. Displayed OLP remainder deducts estimated hedging/market-making costs using the last 25 weeks of biweekly reports (total costs / total gross spreads). Rewards are not deducted. This is not actual daily OLP PnL. Buyback allocation is intended, not executed.
Latest official report window
Signal: revenue versus its prior 7D average, supported by volume and OI changes versus their latest daily observations.
Roadmap Tracker to the promise land
A clean read of the official Variational roadmap: what has shipped, where the project is on the path, and what gates are still ahead.
✓
Q1 2025
Private mainnet · referral (limited)
✓
Q2 2025
Leaderboard · PnL cards · referral full
✓
Q3 2025
Leverage · liq prices · TP/SL · Omni v2
✓
Q4 2025
Tighter spreads · triggers · points
✓
Undated · shipped
Read-only API · mobile · CSV · RWA P1
✓
2026 · Omni v3
UI rework ✓ · isolated margin ✓
1
2026 · Swaps & APIs
Swaps P2 ✓ · P3 · partial fills · API trading
2
2026 · Launch era
Public mainnet · $VAR · OLP vault · Pro
202514/14 dated shipped
+5 undated ✓
+5 undated ✓
Q1 2025 2/2
- Omni private mainnet launch
- Limited launch of Omni referral program
Q2 2025 3/3
- Leaderboard page
- PnL cards
- Full launch of Omni referral program
Q3 2025 4/4
- Configurable leverage
- Display estimated liquidation prices
- TP/SL triggers on quoted, mark, or index
- Major UI rework ("Omni v2")
Q4 2025 5/5
- Quoting upgrade to tighten spreads
- New order type: trigger
- Enabled referral reward claims
- Drag & drop TP/SL/Limit/Trigger on chart
- Launch of the Omni points program
Undated · already shipped 5/5
- Enable read-only Omni API
- Improved mobile experience
- CSV data exports
- Initial launch of RWA markets ("Phase 1")
- Improved portfolio page analytics
Living roadmap8/16 complete · 8 left
Undated backlog · docs order slotted 2026
- Major UI rework ("Omni v3")
- Isolated margin
- Launch swaps ("Phase 2")
- Partial fills of limit orders
- Enable API trading
- Protocol statistics page
- Enable 24/7 trading of swaps ("Phase 3")
- Omni public mainnet launch
- Launch of the $VAR token
- Open community vault for OLP
- Launch of Variational Pro
Major UI rework, isolated margin and swaps ("Phase 2") are marked complete — swaps shipped in v0.32.2, reported 2026-09-05. The remaining eight items are still undated; this board keeps them in the exact order listed by the docs.
Embedded snapshot · Variational Docs Roadmap. Checking the official living roadmap…
Protocol money map
Definitions & sources
Core OLP Vault quotes liquidity and absorbs trading flow. The non-treasury portion funds market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL; the vault balance itself is not company revenue. 0x74bbbb…1f2cd ↗ Implied gross spreads — —, estimated from daily treasury inflows using the latest report-observed share available on each date. Earlier periods without comparable allocation reports use a historical 10% assumption. Protocol Treasury — current on-chain USDC balance. Balance changes are a transparent inflow proxy, but internal transfers or withdrawals may not be operating revenue. 0x5e91…d645 ↗ Settlement Pool Factory creates settlement pools. It is infrastructure, not a direct revenue wallet. 0x0F820…074C ↗
syncingCore OLP Vault USDC
Negative = USDC left this address. Capital can move to settlement pools or external hedge venues, so this is not OLP PnL or total TVL.
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Core OLP Vault)
Core wallet USDC movement transfers + PnL · not a loss metric
1Dsyncing—
7Dsyncing—
30Dsyncing—
—current treasury balance
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Protocol Treasury)
Completed ET growth exact daily closes
1Dsyncing—
7Dsyncing—
30Dsyncing—
—30D avg net inflow / day
Formula: (current balance - balance 30D ago) / 30
—Cumulative gross spreads · estimated
Formula: daily net inflow / period-specific observed share
Daily treasury change
Checking the latest completed ET day
Large-move alert: ±25% and at least $5K versus the prior day or prior 7-day average.
CHECKING
Latest completed day—Waiting for daily close
Vs previous day——
Vs prior 7D average——
Variational protocol treasury
The treasury
keeps growing.
USDC accumulated on-chain from Variational's protocol revenue cut. Start with the money earned, then see the activity that produced it.
On-chain treasury balance
—
Syncing live wallet
02 · How the money moves
Trading activity becomes treasury revenue.
Treasury inflow is directly measured from the on-chain wallet. Gross spreads and the OLP side are estimates based on the report-observed protocol share.
Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.
Today’s VAR Pulse · why open this dashboard
Daily state check, not just charts.
Syncing treasury, volume, open interest, and market position into one operating read.
Latest completed ET close
—
Today’s read
Syncing
Waiting for the latest treasury close and live market activity.
Treasury · Volume · Open Interest · Buyback floorTreasury inflow score
—
Scores activity, depth, treasury conversion, and burn firepower.
Milestone watch
—
Next treasury milestone is calculated from the current 7D pace.
On-chain treasury onlyInvestor read
—
Where Variational sits versus Lighter, Extended, and the perp DEX market.
Comparison uses live/snapshot peer OI and current activity.What to watch next
- Waiting for live stats.
ET earnings workspace · live · — ET
Treasury Inflow and Implied Spreads daily totals
Inflow is the treasury wallet change · Spreads are estimatedwhat these mean
Data policy: Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Implied gross spreads use allocation ratios observed in official biweekly reports. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.
Net treasury inflow is the change in USDC held by Variational's on-chain treasury wallet. It is directly measurable on Arbiscan, but non-revenue transfers could also change the balance.
Implied gross spreads are estimated from treasury inflow using the share observed in the official report for that period. Recent reports show —; current official Docs also state 20%, subject to change.
The non-treasury remainder covers market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL. It is not automatically OLP revenue. A day closes at 00:00 ET; today stays pending until then.
Current ET hour
$0.00
Live · earned so far
Rolling 12 hours—Net treasury inflow
Rolling 24 hours—Net treasury inflow
Rolling 7 days—Net treasury inflow
—
Treasury inflow measured from the on-chain wallet
Gross spreads* implied from the official report share
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
less
more
Market Activity → Actual Treasury Earnings exact DeFiLlama series
Volume and open interest show activity and market depth. The green row shows net USDC added to Variational's treasury wallet; it is a measurable inflow proxy, not audited accounting revenue.
Syncing exact data…
Live rolling 24h volume—official Variational API
Live open interest—official Variational API
7 daily volume observations—DeFiLlama daily UTC
30 daily volume observations—DeFiLlama daily UTC
Net treasury inflowOn-chain USDC balance deltas · non-revenue transfers may affect the result
Trailing 7 days—current balance minus 7 ET days ago
Trailing 30 days—net wallet balance increase
Month to date—current ET calendar month
Current treasury balance—current on-chain USDC held
Perp Volume · daily barsleft axisOpen Interest · daily close lineright axis
Exact values: hover any date for the full USD figures. Historical observations are grouped at UTC day boundaries; live volume is a rolling 24-hour value and is intentionally labeled separately.
Sources: DeFiLlama chart ↗ · adapter code ↗
Treasury Inflow Run-Rate valuation proxy
Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Implied gross spreads use allocation ratios observed in official biweekly reports. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.
MTD VIEWCurrent month-to-date
READ THIS FIRSTWindow activity → real money earned → valuation fuelMTD
1D PERP VOLUME—selected trading flow
+
OPEN INTEREST · LIVE SNAPSHOT—capital kept active in positions
→
1D IMPLIED GROSS SPREADS—estimated from report-observed share
→
1D NET TREASURY INFLOW—selected wallet balance change
Estimated hedging / market-making cost——
OLP remainder after estimated hedging costs——
Estimate: last 25 weeks of biweekly reports, gross-spread-weighted cost rate applied. Rewards not deducted. —
—intended buyback allocation (not yet executed)inflow × 100% (intended, not yet executed burn)
—
volume per $1 implied gross spread
—
volume per $1 net treasury inflow
—
TVL ex-hedging · official biweekly
—
OI turns over per day
Reported TVL — is compared with live OI — → — capital-efficiency context · $1 of reported TVL supports — of daily volume · implied selected-window spreads = — of TVL. TVL excludes hedging accounts and comes from the dated official biweekly report; OI is a live snapshot, so this is contextual rather than a same-timestamp accounting ratio. Cross-check: Dune · Entropy Advisors. Not financial advice.
Is the exchange getting better at making money?
Green up means more net treasury inflow. Purple down means less volume was needed per $1 of inflow. Both are wallet-based proxies.
Treasury inflow—Selected net treasury inflow. Wallet transfers can affect this number.
Efficiency—Volume needed for $1 to treasury. Lower means the exchange monetizes flow better.
What to watch—Best setup: green line rising while purple line falls.
Official Operating Reports published every 2 weeks
One answer first: is the exchange getting bigger, and is it keeping more money after costs? Every published number remains available below. —
1. Is it growing?Look at trading volume, open interest, TVL, and users. Bigger numbers usually mean more people and money are using the exchange.
2. Is it making money?Traders pay spreads. Subtract market-making costs and rewards. What remains is net profit.
3. Is cash really arriving?Treasury means real USDC held by the protocol. The on-chain check verifies that wallet separately.
1
Official reportMetrics copied from Variational's biweekly X post. New posts are appended, never overwritten. Open official post search
2
On-chain checkSix consecutive 14-day treasury inflow windows calculated from the Arbitrum USDC balance history. This updates without waiting for a post.
Latest Report Verdictgrowth and momentum at a glance
How $1 Became Profitlatest completed 2-week report
Same-report operating snapshotscale, users, OLP, and treasury
What Changed Since the Last Reportprevious report → latest report
Eight Numbers That Tell the Storycurrent value · change since first comparable report · change vs previous report
Full Research Atlas18 original views from the 20-report analysis, updated with every new disclosure
Growth is real. Cost quality is the open question. These views reconstruct every chart and infographic from the full research article using the stored official reports.
Read the original analysis ↗Real Cash Added Every 14 DaysUSDC entering the treasury wallet before the next report arrives
Full Evidence Libraryevery published number, definition change, and original report date
Every Metric Over Timehover a point to read its official report date and value
How to read this: Green ↑ means the number went up. Pink ↓ means it went down. Up is not always good: costs and refunds are better when lower. Older reports used “2-week Revenue”; newer reports show trader spreads, costs, and profit separately, so those lines are not mixed.
All Official Reports, Side by Sidenewest first · each value includes its change from the previous matching report
Open One Complete Reportchoose a date to see every single number published that day
Implied Spreads money circuit
One view for the whole engine: volume creates customer spread payments and open interest shows capacity. The latest three official reports put exactly 20% of gross spreads into treasury; current official Docs also state 20%, subject to change. Historical estimates use period-specific report shares.
Gross spreads split. Only the treasury branch funds the VAR buyback plan.
$1.00Customer gross spreadBefore hedging costs and rewards · current 20% / 80% allocation
A · PROTOCOL SHARE
Treasury allocation
$0.20
$1.00 × 20% = $0.20
REVENUE COMPARISON BASIS · EXCLUDES OLP PnLDaily dashboard measure: treasury net inflow, an on-chain proxy.
⇣ 100% intended allocation
VAR buy & burn plan
$0.20Same treasury money — not extra revenueACTUAL PURCHASE / BURN Not established by this model
B · OLP SIDE
OLP pool before costs
$0.80
$1.00 − $0.20 = $0.80
BEFORE COSTS · NOT OLP PROFIT− Hedging / market-making costs− Rewards and other reported deductions= OLP net PnL
DAILY OLP NET PnL Not measured here
Use dated official reports for actual OLP results. A historical margin applied to today is an estimate.
Protocol revenue ≠ gross spreads ≠ OLP profit ≠ executed buybacks
Cumulative estimates and current balances · different measurement bases
Activity context · not revenue: — 30D volume · — open interest
—
Trading volume needed to create $1 of trader spread paymentselected volume ÷ implied spread payments
—
Open interest needed to create $1/day of trader spread paymentOI ÷ implied daily spread payments
—
Trailing 30D average intended buyback allocation / day30D treasury net inflow ÷ 30 × 100%; allocation estimate, not execution
Across the latest three official updates, a customer’s $1.00 gross spread sent $0.20 to treasury. At 100% of treasury committed to buy & burn (intended, not yet executed), that implies $0.20 of buyback-burn firepower. The near 50:50 split applies only to net profit after costs and rewards, not to gross spreads.
The Math 수식 · every implied number, derived
Inputs: treasury balance and inflow history, trailing-30D volume, and current open interest. Historical allocation rates are applied by period; the current treasury share and intended buyback share are policies that may change. These are estimates, not an audited income statement.
T = treasury USDC on-chain —
V = 30D perp volume —
Q = open interest —
s = observed treasury share of spreads 0.20
b = intended buyback allocation share 1.00 (intended, not yet executed)
T = current treasury balance; ΔTᵢ = period inflow; sᵢ = period treasury share; subscript ₃₀ = trailing 30 days
Cumulative gross spreads · estimatedF = Σ (ΔTᵢ / sᵢ)=—
Cumulative OLP-side pool · before costsFops = F − T=—
Intended buyback allocationB = b·T=—
Effective spread take-rateτ = F30V × 10⁴=—
Volume for $1 in spread feesVF30=—
Volume per $1 intended buyback allocationVB30 = Vb·T30=—
OI for $1/day in spread feesQF30 / 30=—
OI per $1/day intended buyback allocationQB30 / 30=—
Per $1 customer spread:
1−s = $0.80 operating pool+
s = $0.20 treasury→
s·b = $0.20 committed to burn (intended)
② Fee per trader Dune · entropy_advisors
Average fee paid per unique trader = cumulative fees ÷ unique traders. Dune's live API needs a key, so paste the trader count from the dashboard and it computes instantly:
—
avg total fees / trader
—
to treasury / trader
—
volume / trader (30d)
Points / FDV Calculator airdrop scenario
Program extended. TGE is set for Q4 2026 (no exact date yet — possible marks Oct 30 and Nov 30, latest bound Dec 31). Genesis airdrop confirmed at 32% of supply, 100% unlocked at TGE. Points ÷ total pool = share; share × FDV × 32% = estimated value.
Time left in TGE window
TGE window: Q4 2026 (latest Dec 31, 2026 · 11:59PM ET)
—
— elapsed—
—
Total pool
FDV scenario
—
TGE circulating supply · fixed
Circulating at TGE = the 32% genesis airdrop (100% unlocked). MCAP = FDV × 32%.
32%— MCAP at TGE
Edit this FDV scenario
74% of HYPE FDV
EDIT · DRAG TO CHANGE
—
—share of poolmy pts ÷ total pool
—my airdrop value32% airdrop
—value per pointat this FDV
My airdrop value across FDV × pool tap a cell to load it
32% Genesis (100% unlocked)
18% Ecosystem
50% Team & Investors (12m lock, ≥3y unlock)
100% of treasury revenue → buy & burn
Unclaimed airdrop burned
Need ≥1 point to be eligible
How this is calculated for the team to verify
Every number above is derived from two public sources — verify each step:
Fees / revenueTreasury balance on-chain (Arbitrum USDC
0x5e91…d645 ↗), sampled daily via archive RPC. The latest three official reports show treasury = exactly 20% of gross spreads, so current spread estimates use revenue ÷ 0.20. Current official Docs also state 20%, subject to change. Historical estimates use the rate available for each period.Perp volume & OIHistorical daily values come directly from DeFiLlama's public
/v2/chart/derivatives/protocol/variational and /v2/chart/open-interest/protocol/variational series. Live rolling-24h volume and OI come from Variational's official /metadata/stats endpoint, which is also the source used by DeFiLlama's adapter.Volume → $1 spread
volume_30d ÷ spreads_30d where spreads_30d = revenue_30d ÷ 0.20 using the latest observed share. Take-rate (bps) = spreads ÷ volume × 10000.Volume → $1 burned
volume_30d ÷ (revenue_30d × 1.00) — 100% of revenue is committed to burn (intended, not yet executed).OI → $1/day
OI ÷ (revenue_30d ÷ 30). Annual yield on OI = daily_rev × 365 ÷ OI.Distance to HL
(HL_metric ÷ VAR_metric − 1) × 100%. Comparison tab uses Perpetual Pulse OI and volume snapshots.Fee per trader
cumulative_fees ÷ unique_traders (traders from Dune).Points calc
my_points ÷ total_pool × FDV × airdrop_%. Point value = output ÷ my_points.Cumulative Accumulation —
Treasury USDC balance over time — accumulated funds, not executed buybacks or burned tokens.
Actual on-chain
Projected pace
Range (soft–hot)
Forecast to
Drag either endpoint to tune pace
Growth per Interval
See how much the treasury added in each window and whether the rolling average is bending.
Interval added
4-period rolling avg
| Period | Start | End | USDC Added | Δ % | Avg / day |
|---|
Historical Health fees · OI · speed
One read for whether the venue is getting healthier: OI/capacity, implied spread fees, and the actual daily earning speed.
Fees vs Open Interest
Real daily data: OI from DeFiLlama; recent spread-payment estimates use treasury revenue ÷ the observed 20% share. Indexed to 100 at the start.
Open interest
Treasury fees (30D)
Fee yield on OI
Earning Velocity
Not the total — the speed it earns at. A rising line means the treasury is stacking faster over time.
Daily added bars
7-day avg line
MARKET DECISION ROOM
Perp DEX Comparison
Read the market in four layers: scale, activity, capital efficiency, and valuation. Metrics that do not share an accounting basis are deliberately separated.
01 · SCALEHIGH CONFIDENCE
—
Calculating current OI position and market share.
02 · ACTIVITYHIGH CONFIDENCE
—
Comparing volume generated per dollar of open interest.
03 · EFFICIENCYMODELED
—
Estimating trader-fee capture from matched 30-day windows.
04 · VALUATIONMODEL
—
Mapping current OI to an implied circulating market cap.
Bottom line
Compare activity first. Read what each protocol keeps on its own basis.
OI and volume are comparable market metrics. Variational wallet inflow and Lighter protocol revenue are different measurements, so this page does not declare a revenue winner from them.
Market rank#-loading market data
Open interest-loading
30D fee pool-loading
30D kept by protocol-different definitions · shown side by side
Hyperliquid benchmarkScale ceiling, not a direct peer-open interest
-24H volume
-30D protocol revenue / inflow proxy
Variational vs Lighter vs Extended
OI and volume use matched windows. Fee pools and the amount each protocol keeps retain their source labels because the accounting definitions differ by venue.
How these numbers are calculated
Weekly trader fee poolEight complete 7-day periodsVAR Arbitrum treasury wallet + official Biweekly allocation ratios · Lighter / Extended DeFiLlama Fees
Variational
Lighter
Extended
NORMALIZED COMPARISON
Capital Efficiency
Absolute size can hide operating quality. These ratios put every venue on the same unit basis; modeled values remain marked.
Comparable OI and volume use the same market snapshot.
Modeled Variational fee pool is inferred from treasury allocation.
Do not compare wallet inflow is not booked protocol revenue.
Open Interest Leaderboard
Top 15 perpetual DEXs ranked by current open interest. Variational is highlighted so its market position is visible immediately.
Variational positionloading
Implied Valuation
The model estimates circulating market cap from open interest. Premium or discount means actual token MCAP versus this statistical model, not versus FDV.
Model-implied FDV
$—
MCAP ÷ TGE float · 32% official base · — range
Model-implied MCAP
$—
From current OI $— · 32% TGE base (official)
Gap to Hyperliquid
-
Model MCAP versus Hyperliquid MCAP
WHAT MUST BE TRUE?
Float × Model Scenario
FDV changes mechanically with circulating float. Columns apply a conservative, base, and expansion case around the model-implied market cap.
Scenario values are model outputs, not price targets.
Model, sources, and limitations
TOKENOMICS / FUNDRAISE
Tokenomics / Fundraise history
Who owns $VAR at TGE, when the rest can reach the market, what removes supply, and who funded Variational. Total token supply is not announced, so every allocation figure is a percentage. Each fact carries its source: official announcement, primary press, or reported by secondary outlets only.
01 · CIRCULATING AT TGEOFFICIAL
32%
Genesis airdrop, 100% unlocked at TGE
Share of total supply. Total supply itself is not announced.
02 · LOCKED AT TGEOFFICIAL
50%
Team + Investors
12-month lock after TGE, then unlock over at least 3 years.
03 · SUPPLY SINKOFFICIAL
100%
of treasury revenue goes to $VAR buy & burn
Reading the live treasury.
04 · DISCLOSED RAISEPRIMARY PRESS
≈ $61.8M
Seed + Strategic + Series A
Valuation was not disclosed for any round.
A · ALLOCATION
Who gets what at TGE
Three buckets, 100% of supply. The airdrop is the only one that is liquid on day one.
Genesis airdrop · 32%OFFICIAL
- 100% unlocked at TGE.
- Distributed pro-rata by points.
- At least 1 point is required to be eligible.
- Unclaimed tokens are burned.
Ecosystem Reserve · 18%OFFICIAL
- Held by the Variational Foundation.
- Spent at the Foundation's discretion.
- No schedule published.
Team + Investors · 50%OFFICIAL
- 12-month lock after TGE, then unlock over at least 3 years.
- Team members also have individual vesting.
- Split between team and investors: TBA, to be announced before TGE.
B · UNLOCK TIMELINE
The fastest the official terms allow
TGE is set for Q4 2026 with no exact date yet. This curve applies the official terms at their fastest — a 12-month lock, then exactly 3 years of linear unlock — and is not a published schedule.
Genesis airdrop · circulating from TGE
Team + Investors · unlocked (fastest case)
Team + Investors · still locked
Ecosystem · discretionary, unscheduled
Circulating share of total supply: 32% at TGE, flat through the 12-month lock (~Q4 2027), then rising to 82% no earlier than ~Q4 2030 if the team and investor tokens unlock over exactly 3 years. The Ecosystem 18% is drawn hatched because it can move at any time or not at all.
C · SUPPLY SINKS AND DEMAND
What removes supply, what feeds the airdrop
The official policy sends all treasury revenue to buying and burning $VAR. The figures below are the live ones the rest of the dashboard already uses.
Buy & burn policy OFFICIAL
100%
of treasury revenue → $VAR buy & burn. Intended, not yet executed: no outflows so far, so the balance below is dry powder, not burned tokens.
Treasury balance now
—
Arbitrum USDC treasury wallet, live.
30D treasury inflow
—
Net wallet-balance change over the last 30 days.
Points pool growth OFFICIAL
150k / week
New points are added each week until TGE; the Genesis airdrop is shared pro-rata by points.
D · FUNDRAISE HISTORY
Three rounds, ≈ $61.8M disclosed
Valuation was not disclosed for any round. Names are tagged by how well they are sourced: primary press carries the round, secondary outlets add some participants.
Variational investors
Colors show confirmed round participation. Additional Series A participation reported only by secondary sources is marked separately.
Seed confirmed onlyStrategic onlySeed + Series AAll 3 rounds · none confirmed
Sources: Official investor roster · Seed announcement · Strategic announcement
- Closed Dec 2021 · announced 2024-10-23 Seed$10.3M
- June 2025 Strategic$1.5M
- Announced 2026-05-21 Series A$50M
| Round | Amount | Date | Investors | Terms and purpose | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed | $10.3M | Closed Dec 2021, announced 2024-10-23 | Co-led by Bain Capital Crypto and Peak XV Partners; with Coinbase Ventures, Dragonfly, North Island Ventures, Hack VC. Brevan Howard REPORTED | Priced equity plus 1:1 token warrants. Valuation undisclosed. | PRIMARY PRESS The Block |
| Strategic | $1.5M | June 2025 | Mirana Ventures, Caladan, Zoku Ventures (formerly Superpotion). | Partners rather than capital: institutional market makers as design partners for Pro, quoting and OLP support for Omni, small checks to limit dilution. | FOUNDER POST X · REPORTED TechFlow |
| Series A | $50M | Announced 2026-05-21 | Led by Dragonfly; Bain Capital Crypto and Coinbase Ventures participated. Peak XV, Hack VC, Brevan Howard, North Island REPORTED | Use of funds: RWA perps (gold, silver, copper, WTI) and Variational Pro for institutions. Valuation undisclosed. | PRIMARY PRESS CoinDesk, Fortune |
| Total disclosed | ≈ $61.8M | Seed $10.3M + Strategic $1.5M + Series A $50M. | |||
FOUNDERS AND BACKGROUND REPORTED
Founded in 2021 by Lucas Schuermann (CEO) and Edward Yu, previously of Qu Capital (acquired by DCG). The team ran as a profitable proprietary market maker for about 2 years before building the protocol.
Peers that raised a similar amount over about two years
Crypto trading, lending and stablecoin projects with roughly $25M – $90M disclosed across two or three rounds, largest first. Bars share one scale; each shade is one round, in order.
| Project | Rounds · lead | Total raised | Peak FDV | Current FDV | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LighterPerp DEX · $LIT |
|
≈ $89M | $7.86BATH 2025-12-30 | $3.06B−61% from peak | PRIMARY PRESS Fortune ↗ |
 MorphoLending · $MORPHO |
|
≈ $68M | $4.17BATH 2025-01-17 | $2.42B−42% from peak | PRIMARY PRESS The Block ↗ |
 AgoraStablecoin · $AUSD |
|
$62M | No governance token · AUSD is a stablecoin | PRIMARY PRESS Fortune ↗ | |
 VariationalRFQ perps · RWA · $VAR |
|
≈ $61.8M | Pre-TGE · TGE set for Q4 2026 | PRIMARY PRESS CoinDesk ↗ | |
 DriftPerp DEX · $DRIFT |
|
≈ $52M | $2.60BATH 2024-11-08 | $16.1M−99% from peak | REPORTED Crowdfund Insider ↗ |
 SynFuturesDerivatives DEX · $F |
|
≈ $38M | $1.92BATH 2024-12-06 | $30.5M−98% from peak | PRIMARY PRESS The Block ↗ |
 SymbioticRestaking |
|
$34.8M | No token | PRIMARY PRESS The Block ↗ | |
 GRVTPerp DEX · $GRVT |
|
≈ $26M | $454MATH 2026-07-30 | $225M−51% from peak | REPORTED TechFlow ↗ |
LiquidPerps app |
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≈ $25.6M | No token | PRIMARY PRESS Fortune ↗ | |
 OstiumRWA perps |
|
≈ $23.5M | No token | PRIMARY PRESS Fortune ↗ | |
FDV = token price × max supply, from CoinGecko on 2026-10-16; a snapshot, not live. Peak FDV uses the all-time-high price; all five tokens have a fixed max supply, so it is the true peak. Variational's total matches Agora and Morpho, but its first $10.3M was raised in 2021 for a trading firm, so most of its outside capital is the single 2026 Series A. Drift's Series A date and GRVT's earlier rounds are reported by secondary sources only.
E · WHY THEY RAISED
$10.3M → $1.5M → $50M, in the founder's words
Every post where CEO Lucas Schuermann (@variational_lvs) explains why a round was raised, paraphrased, dated and linked. Searched his posts for raise, VC, investors, funding, equity, dilution and each investor's handle.
THE THROUGH-LINE FOUNDER POSTS
Protocol development was paid for with the team's 2021 – 2023 market-making profits. Each later round was framed as buying partners and reach, not runway.
-
SEED · $10.3M
Closed late 2021 · announced 2024-10-23
Capital for a trading firm, not the protocol
- 2024-10-23 · POST
Calls the seed investors the best partners in the space for building peer-to-peer derivatives trading on-chain.
X ↗ - 2024-10-23 · THREAD
Hints that more fundraising may follow, alongside mainnet, rewards and a token.
X ↗ - 2025-05-22 · POST
The ~$10M equity was raised in late 2021 for the founders’ new market-making firm and its trading strategies.
X ↗ - 2025-05-22 · POST
That firm’s 2021 – 2023 trading profits, not VC money, paid for nearly all protocol development, including Omni and Pro.
X ↗ - 2025-05-22 · REPLY
Some VCs remain as value-add partners; self-funding gives the team flexibility and time to stay product-focused.
X ↗
- 2024-10-23 · POST
-
STRATEGIC · $1.5M
Announced 2025-06-04
Partners, not cash
- 2025-06-04 · POST 1/3
Pro: align institutional market makers early as design partners — institutional OTC trading has a cold-start problem that aligned partners help solve.
X ↗ - 2025-06-04 · POST 2/3
They did not need cash, so they could be very selective, cap check sizes and limit who got in, to protect against token dilution.
X ↗ - 2025-06-04 · POST 3/3
Omni: Caladan could help quote exotic markets and offload hedging flow; Mirana could add OLP liquidity if more open interest is needed.
X ↗ - 2025-06-04 · POST
Acknowledges the anti-VC mood after the low-float / high-FDV launch era and Hyperliquid’s success without VCs, and calls it warranted.
X ↗ - 2025-06-04 · REPLY
The aim is to self-fund most development while aligning with key partners who help Variational succeed.
X ↗
- 2025-06-04 · POST 1/3
-
SERIES A · $50M
Announced 2026-05-20
Resources to bring TradFi on-chain
- 2026-05-20 · POST
The raise gives Variational the resources to land key institutional partnerships, expand the team and list 100+ RWA perps.
X ↗ - 2026-05-20 · POST
Frames the round, led by Dragonfly with Bain Capital Crypto, Coinbase Ventures and other strategics, as bringing TradFi liquidity on-chain.
X ↗ - 2026-05-20 · INTERVIEW
Discussed the raise, the first RWA rollout and the TradFi liquidity plan on The Rollup.
X ↗
- 2026-05-20 · POST
How the reason shifted: in 2025 the case centred on Pro, the institutional OTC app, and the post said they did not need cash. By the 2026 Series A the stated focus was RWA perps and TradFi liquidity, and $50M was presented as resources for partnerships, hiring and listings. This is the founder's own framing, not an audited use of funds.
F · CONTEXT
Raised vs implied valuation
Two numbers side by side, not a return. Investor shares and entry prices are unknown, so no investor multiple can be computed from them.
Total disclosed raise PRIMARY PRESS
≈ $61.8M
Three rounds, 2021 – 2026. No round disclosed a valuation.
Model-implied FDV MODEL
—
The Comparison tab's open-interest model at the official 32% TGE float.
The implied FDV is the dashboard's own estimate — circulating market cap from a power-law fit of peers' open interest, divided by the 32% float — not a price, not a funding-round valuation, and not a forecast.
- OFFICIAL Variational announcement Allocation, unlock terms, buy & burn policy. Shared 2026-09-28.
- PRIMARY PRESS The Block theblock.co/post/322653 ↗ Seed round.
- PRIMARY PRESS CoinDesk coindesk.com, 2026-05-21 ↗ Series A.
- PRIMARY PRESS Fortune fortune.com, 2026-05-20 ↗ Series A.
- FOUNDER POST @variational_lvs on X 2025-06-04 ↗ 2025-05-22 ↗ 2026-05-20 ↗ Why each round was raised.
- REPORTED TechFlow techflowpost.com/newsletter/87027 ↗ Strategic round.
PRE-TGE VALUATION ROOM
Pre-TGE Comparison
Lighter is the one perp DEX that ran the same kind of pre-TGE points program and then let a market put a number on the result. This tab reads Variational against that run day-for-day, checks whether the two books are even quoted on the same basis, and uses what was actually paid for Lighter at its TGE to bound what Variational's could be worth.
01 · WHAT LIGHTER WAS WORTHMEASURED
—
LIT fully diluted, on its TGE day
Reading Lighter's TGE pricing.
02 · WHO HOLDS THE BIGGER BOOKMEASURED
—
Variational's open interest vs Lighter's
Comparing both books on a confirmed basis.
03 · WHOSE MARKET WAS HARDERMEASURED
—
Days Bitcoin sat below its high — VAR vs LIT
Measuring the market each program was built in.
04 · WHAT VARIATIONAL COULD BE WORTHMODEL
—
Implied fully diluted, base case
Applying the comparable to Variational's book.
01 · THE TAPE
The market each one was handed
Real BTCUSDT daily candles from Binance over each venue's own 252 days, with that venue's book directly underneath on the same day axis. Both price panels share one dollar scale and both book panels share another, so the columns read against each other. Shaded stretches are days Bitcoin spent more than 15% below its running high.
Variational2025-12-17 → day 252 · still pre-TGE82.2%of days below the high
BTCUSDT · 1D · BINANCE
BTC over the window−9.5%peak to trough−39.5%
Variational open interest
book over the window+67.6%average$943M
day 0day 63day 126day 189day 252
Lighter · Season 12025-01-18 → day 252 · TGE 94 days later21.3%of days below the high
BTCUSDT · 1D · BINANCE
BTC over the window+4.9%peak to trough−28.1%
Lighter open interest
book over the windowfrom zero · n/maverage$302M
day 0day 63day 126day 189day 252
BTC up day
BTC down day
Bitcoin more than 15% below its running high
Hover a column for the day's open, high, low, close and the book that day.
02 · THE GATE
Are the two books even the same measure?
Every number above rests on this. Variational's reported open interest counts both sides of every position. If Lighter's did not, the comparison would be off by a factor of two and the book claim would invert. Both venues' own APIs answer it.
VERDICT
Same basis, so the comparison stands. Both venues publish two-sided open interest and DeFiLlama passes both through unchanged — Variational's API figure and its DeFiLlama print differ by 0.4%, Lighter's by 1.8%. On the published basis the books are $1.44B against $1.12B; on the one-sided basis taken from each venue's own API they are $718M against $489M. Variational leads on either, by 1.29× or 1.47×.
The one thing this does not settle: Lighter publishes no statement of its convention, so the two-sided reading is inferred from the ratio, not quoted from documentation. It is a strong inference — no market on the venue reads near 1.0× — but it is an inference.03 · THE MODEL
What Variational's TGE implies
Four ways to carry Lighter's TGE pricing across, each answering a different question about what a book is worth. They disagree by an order of magnitude, and the disagreement is the finding: Variational prices well on capital and badly on flow.
Float × case
The methods produce a fully diluted valuation. Circulating market cap on day one is that number times whatever float the token launches with — the lever Variational has not announced.
Model outputs, not price targets. Lighter's own day-one float was 25%. The Points Calculator tab converts any of these into a per-point value.
04 · READ THIS FIRST
What this comparison cannot carry
Every objection a desk raises about this page, stated before it gets raised.
- One comparable is not a comp set. Lighter is the only pre-TGE points program on a perp DEX that has since been priced. A single observation cannot produce a confidence interval, and none is claimed here.
- The books do not start alike. Lighter opens at zero — day 0 is the venue's first recorded trade. Variational opens at $859M because Omni Points was announced retroactively over traders already there. Compare levels and averages; growth percentages are meaningless across the pair.
- Day 252 means different things. Variational's is 252 days of a program on a running venue. Lighter's is 252 days of the venue's whole existence, most of it an invite-only beta with deposit caps.
- The window was chosen by the subject. 252 days because that is where Variational stands today. It moves every day, and the party making the claim set the frame.
- Turnover crosses market structures. Variational is bilateral with an OLP; Lighter is an anonymous order book. OLP inventory may enter open interest differently from order-book maker inventory, so part of the turnover gap could be plumbing rather than behaviour.
- Volume is protocol-reported. DeFiLlama passes through self-reported figures. Wash and incentivised flow are unaudited on both venues, which cuts for Variational on Lighter's number and against it on its own.
- Lighter's TGE price is one venue on one day. It carried a 25% unlocked airdrop with no vesting into a specific December tape. A different supply design or a different month would have printed a different number, and the whole model rests on that one print.
SOURCES
- Variational
omni-client-api.prod.ap-northeast-1.variational.io/metadata/stats— 544 listings, taker long/short per market - Lighter
mainnet.zklighter.elliot.ai/api/v1/orderBookDetails— 229 perps, open interest × mark price - Both books
api.llama.fi/v2/chart/{open-interest,derivatives}/protocol/{variational,lighter} - LIT price
api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/lighter— 240 daily closes since TGE, 1B supply - Bitcoin tape
api.binance.com/api/v3/klines— BTCUSDT 1d closes