Today’s read
Syncing
Waiting for the latest treasury close and live market activity.
Treasury · Volume · Open Interest · Buyback floor Daily VAR News · X-ready protocol update
Syncing Variational's current state…
Combining on-chain treasury revenue with live volume and open interest.
Waiting for live sources
SYNCING
Latest ET treasury revenue
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Waiting for completed close
Minimum buyback-burn floor —
Rolling 24H volume
—
Official live stats
Trading activity now
Live open interest
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Official live stats
Capital active in positions
Treasury added · 7D
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— per ET day
Actual on-chain USDC inflow
Protocol treasury held
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— over trailing 30D
Live on-chain balance
X-ready post · fundamentals0 / 280
Syncing the daily brief…
Verify the numbersOpen the primary or methodology source for each metric
Treasury balance + ET revenue
Live USDC held by the protocol treasury. Daily revenue is the balance change between exact 00:00 ET closes.
Latest completed ET close
Rolling 24H volume + live OI
Current rolling volume and open interest returned by Variational's official public stats endpoint.
Waiting for live API timestamp
Historical volume + OI
Daily UTC observations used for comparisons and the historical market-activity chart.
Waiting for latest daily observation
Revenue share + burn floor
Docs describe a 10% treasury cut subject to change; the latest three official reports show a 20% observed cut. The burn figure applies the stated 30% minimum to treasury revenue.
Latest official report window
Signal: revenue versus its prior 7D average, supported by volume and OI changes versus their latest daily observations.
Roadmap Tracker to the promise land
A clean read of the official Variational roadmap: what has shipped, where the project is on the path, and what gates are still ahead.
Current journey
67% of the listed path shipped
Every dated item from Q1 2025 through Q4 2025 is checked off, along with six undated items including the completed Omni v3 major UI rework. Ten undated items remain — from isolated margin through Variational Pro.
20/30listed roadmap items completed
4quarters shipped
6undated shipped
10items left
✓
Q1 2025
Private mainnet · referral (limited)
✓
Q2 2025
Leaderboard · PnL cards · referral full
✓
Q3 2025
Leverage · liq prices · TP/SL · Omni v2
✓
Q4 2025
Tighter spreads · triggers · points
✓
Undated · shipped
Read-only API · mobile · CSV · RWA P1
1
2026 · Omni v3
UI rework ✓ · isolated margin next
2
2026 · Swaps & APIs
Swaps P2–P3 · partial fills · API trading · stats
3
2026 · Launch era
Public mainnet · $VAR · OLP vault · Pro
202514/14 dated shipped
+5 undated ✓
+5 undated ✓
Q1 2025 2/2
- Omni private mainnet launch
- Limited launch of Omni referral program
Q2 2025 3/3
- Leaderboard page
- PnL cards
- Full launch of Omni referral program
Q3 2025 4/4
- Configurable leverage
- Display estimated liquidation prices
- TP/SL triggers on quoted, mark, or index
- Major UI rework ("Omni v2")
Q4 2025 5/5
- Quoting upgrade to tighten spreads
- New order type: trigger
- Enabled referral reward claims
- Drag & drop TP/SL/Limit/Trigger on chart
- Launch of the Omni points program
Undated · already shipped 5/5
- Enable read-only Omni API
- Improved mobile experience
- CSV data exports
- Initial launch of RWA markets ("Phase 1")
- Improved portfolio page analytics
20261/11 · the road ahead
Undated backlog · docs order slotted 2026
- Major UI rework ("Omni v3")
- Isolated margin
- Launch swaps ("Phase 2")
- Partial fills of limit orders
- Enable API trading
- Protocol statistics page
- Enable 24/7 trading of swaps ("Phase 3")
- Omni public mainnet launch
- Launch of the $VAR token
- Open community vault for OLP
- Launch of Variational Pro
Major UI rework is marked complete. The remaining ten items are still undated; this board keeps them in the exact order listed by the docs.
Source: Variational Docs Roadmap. The docs describe this as a living roadmap, not a fixed promised timeline.
Protocol money map
Core OLP Vault quotes liquidity and absorbs trading flow. The non-treasury portion funds market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL; the vault balance itself is not company revenue. 0x74bbbb…1f2cd ↗
Observed revenue cut — — recent-rate-equivalent spread payments. The latest three official reports show exactly 20% flowing to treasury; the current docs page still says 10% and notes the percentage can change.
Protocol Treasury — USDC actually accumulated on-chain; the cleanest measurable “company earns” number. 0x5e91…d645 ↗
Settlement Pool Factory creates settlement pools. It is infrastructure, not a direct revenue wallet. 0x0F820…074C ↗
syncingCore OLP Vault USDC
Negative = USDC left this address. Capital can move to settlement pools or external hedge venues, so this is not OLP PnL or total TVL.
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Core OLP Vault)
Core wallet USDC movement transfers + PnL · not a loss metric
1Dsyncing—
7Dsyncing—
30Dsyncing—
—treasury accumulated
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Protocol Treasury)
Completed ET growth exact daily closes
1Dsyncing—
7Dsyncing—
30Dsyncing—
—30D avg revenue / day
Formula: (today treasury - treasury 30D ago) / 30
—20% recent-rate equivalent
Formula: treasury accumulated / observed revenue cut
Daily treasury change
Checking the latest completed ET day
Large-move alert: ±25% and at least $5K versus the prior day or prior 7-day average.
CHECKING
Latest completed day—Waiting for daily close
Vs previous day——
Vs prior 7D average——
Today’s VAR Pulse · why open this dashboard
Daily state check, not just charts.
Syncing treasury, volume, open interest, and market position into one operating read.
Latest completed ET close
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Money engine score
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Scores activity, depth, treasury conversion, and burn firepower.
Milestone watch
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Next treasury milestone is calculated from the current 7D pace.
On-chain treasury onlyInvestor read
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Where Variational sits versus Lighter, Extended, and the perp DEX market.
Comparison uses live/snapshot peer OI and current activity.What to watch next
- Waiting for live stats.
ET earnings workspace · live · — ET
Revenue and Fee Tracker daily totals
Revenue is what the protocol keeps · Fee is what traders paidwhat these mean
Revenue is the USDC that actually lands in Variational's on-chain treasury wallet — measured, not modelled, and verifiable on Arbiscan. It is the protocol's own share, and at least 30% of it is earmarked to buy back and burn $VAR.
Fee is the total spread traders paid to produce that revenue. The treasury books only its share of each spread (— across the last three official reports); the rest goes to the OLP liquidity providers.
So revenue tells you what the protocol earns; fee tells you how large the business actually is — and fee is the number to use when comparing against fee-based exchanges. A day closes at 00:00 ET; today stays pending until then.
Current ET hour
$0.00
Live · earned so far
Rolling 12 hours—Actual on-chain earnings
Rolling 24 hours—Actual on-chain earnings
Rolling 7 days—Actual on-chain earnings
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SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
less
more
Market Activity → Actual Treasury Earnings exact DeFiLlama series
Volume and open interest show how active and deep the venue is. The green row connects that activity to real USDC received by Variational's on-chain treasury.
Syncing exact data…
Live rolling 24h volume—official Variational API
Live open interest—official Variational API
7 daily volume observations—DeFiLlama daily UTC
30 daily volume observations—DeFiLlama daily UTC
Actual treasury earningsOn-chain USDC balance deltas · not gross trader spreads or modeled revenue
Trailing 7 days—current balance minus 7 ET days ago
Trailing 30 days—actual USDC received
Month to date—current ET calendar month
All-time treasury held—current on-chain USDC balance
Perp Volume · dailyOpen Interest · daily close
Exact values: hover any date for the full USD figures. Historical observations are grouped at UTC day boundaries; live volume is a rolling 24-hour value and is intentionally labeled separately.
Sources: DeFiLlama chart ↗ · adapter code ↗
Revenue Run-Rate FDV / MCAP input
How much real USDC this venue earns per day, week, and month. Annualize the pace and you have the revenue leg of any FDV or MCAP multiple.
MTD VIEWCurrent month-to-date
READ THIS FIRSTWindow activity → real money earned → valuation fuelMTD
1D PERP VOLUME—selected trading flow
+
OPEN INTEREST · LIVE SNAPSHOT—capital kept active in positions
→
1D SPREAD FEES PAID BY TRADERS—treasury ÷ observed 20%
→
1D VARIATIONAL TREASURY REVENUE—selected treasury inflow
—estimated 1D buyback-burn firepower1D treasury × 30%
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perp volume makes $1 in fees
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volume makes $1 to treasury
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TVL ex-hedging · official biweekly
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OI turns over per day
TVL — backs — OI → — capital efficiency · $1 of TVL supports — of daily volume · selected-window fee pool = — of TVL → fee capture scales with volume, not with parked capital. TVL from the official biweekly post (cross-check: Dune · Entropy Advisors). Not financial advice.
Is the exchange getting better at making money?
Green up is good. Purple down is good. Together they show whether trading activity is turning into treasury revenue more efficiently.
Money engine—Selected treasury revenue. If this rises, the venue is earning more real USDC.
Efficiency—Volume needed for $1 to treasury. Lower means the exchange monetizes flow better.
What to watch—Best setup: green line rising while purple line falls.
Is Variational Getting Bigger and Making More Money? official report · every 2 weeks
This page keeps every number Variational published. It shows how many people use the exchange, how much they trade, what it costs to run, and how much money is left. —
1. Is it growing?Look at trading volume, open interest, TVL, and users. Bigger numbers usually mean more people and money are using the exchange.
2. Is it making money?Traders pay spreads. Subtract market-making costs and rewards. What remains is net profit.
3. Is cash really arriving?Treasury means real USDC held by the protocol. The on-chain check verifies that wallet separately.
1
Official reportMetrics copied from Variational's biweekly X post. New posts are appended, never overwritten. Open official post search
2
On-chain checkSix consecutive 14-day treasury inflow windows calculated from the Arbitrum USDC balance history. This updates without waiting for a post.
Money Made in the Latest 2 Weeksmoney traders paid → costs → money left over
The 8 Most Important Numberstoday · change since the first matching report · change since the last report
Real Cash Added Every 14 DaysUSDC entering the treasury wallet before the next report arrives
Latest Exchange Snapshotall numbers come from the same official report
Every Number Over Timeevery dot is a real official report · every published number is kept
How to read this: Green ↑ means the number went up. Pink ↓ means it went down. Up is not always good: costs and refunds are better when lower. Older reports used “2-week Revenue”; newer reports show trader spreads, costs, and profit separately, so those lines are not mixed.
All Official Reports, Side by Sidenewest first · each value includes its change from the previous matching report
Open One Complete Reportchoose a date to see every single number published that day
Implied Spreads money circuit
One view for the whole engine: volume creates customer spread payments and open interest shows capacity. The latest three official reports put exactly 20% of gross spreads into treasury; the docs page still says 10%, so this model clearly labels the observed rate.
Money enters the venue
—30D volume
—open interest
Trading activity feeds the spread pool.
→
Implied spread payments
—
treasury accumulated ÷ observed 20% share
→
Protocol treasury
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20% of gross spreads in the latest 3 reports
→
Buyback-burn firepower
—
30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR
FLOW: market activity → trader spread fees → Variational treasury → future $VAR buyback-burn firepower.
Customer $1 Spread → Buyback Burn unit economics
The only unit-economics view that matters: one customer spread dollar, the treasury cut, and the activity needed to produce it.
Customer pays
$1.00
spread paid on a trade
→
Operating remainder
$0.80
funds market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL
+
Protocol treasury
$0.20
observed in the latest three official reports
→
Buyback-burn firepower
$0.06
30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR
—
Trading volume needed to create $1 of trader spread paymentselected volume ÷ implied spread payments
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Open interest needed to create $1/day of trader spread paymentOI ÷ implied daily spread payments
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Current buyback-burn firepower loaded per daydaily treasury revenue × 30% burn floor
Across the latest three official updates, a customer’s $1.00 gross spread sent $0.20 to treasury. At the current 30% burn floor, that implies at least $0.06 of buyback-burn firepower. The near 50:50 split applies only to net profit after costs and rewards, not to gross spreads.
The Math 수식 · every implied number, derived
Only 2 measured inputs and 2 protocol constants drive the whole engine — every "implied" figure is one of these equations with the live value plugged in. Verify each line.
T = treasury USDC on-chain —
V = 30D perp volume —
Q = open interest —
s = observed treasury share of spreads 0.20
b = burn floor 0.30
subscript ₃₀ = trailing-30-day amount
Spread fees paid by tradersF = Ts=—
Non-treasury operating poolFops = F − T = T(1−s)s=—
Buyback-burn firepowerB = b·T=—
Effective spread take-rateτ = F30V × 10⁴=—
Volume for $1 in spread feesVF30 = s·VT30=—
Volume for $1 bought & burnedVB30 = Vb·T30=—
OI for $1/day in spread feesQF30 / 30=—
OI for $1/day burnedQB30 / 30=—
Per $1 customer spread:
1−s = $0.80 operating pool+
s = $0.20 treasury→
s·b = $0.06 burn floor
② Fee per trader Dune · entropy_advisors
Average fee paid per unique trader = cumulative fees ÷ unique traders. Dune's live API needs a key, so paste the trader count from the dashboard and it computes instantly:
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avg total fees / trader
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to treasury / trader
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volume / trader (30d)
Points / FDV Calculator airdrop scenario
Sep 31 does not exist, so this uses the actual campaign deadline: Sep 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Your points ÷ total pool = share; share × FDV × airdrop allocation = estimated value.
Time left to deadline
Ends Sep 30, 2026 · 11:59PM ET
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— elapsed—
FDV scenario
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Edit this FDV scenario
74% of HYPE FDV
EDIT · DRAG TO CHANGE
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——20% airdrop
——25% airdrop
——30% airdrop
How this is calculated for the team to verify
Every number above is derived from two public sources — verify each step:
Fees / revenueTreasury balance on-chain (Arbitrum USDC
0x5e91…d645 ↗), sampled daily via archive RPC. The latest three official reports show treasury = exactly 20% of gross spreads, so current spread estimates use revenue ÷ 0.20. The docs page currently says 10% and subject to change; that conflict is disclosed rather than averaged away.Perp volume & OIHistorical daily values come directly from DeFiLlama's public
/v2/chart/derivatives/protocol/variational and /v2/chart/open-interest/protocol/variational series. Live rolling-24h volume and OI come from Variational's official /metadata/stats endpoint, which is also the source used by DeFiLlama's adapter.Volume → $1 spread
volume_30d ÷ spreads_30d where spreads_30d = revenue_30d ÷ 0.20 using the latest observed share. Take-rate (bps) = spreads ÷ volume × 10000.Volume → $1 burned
volume_30d ÷ (revenue_30d × 0.30) — burn is ≥30% of revenue.OI → $1/day
OI ÷ (revenue_30d ÷ 30). Annual yield on OI = daily_rev × 365 ÷ OI.Distance to HL
(HL_metric ÷ VAR_metric − 1) × 100%. Comparison tab uses Perpetual Pulse OI and volume snapshots.Fee per trader
cumulative_fees ÷ unique_traders (traders from Dune).Points calc
my_points ÷ total_pool × FDV × airdrop_%. Point value = output ÷ my_points.Cumulative Accumulation —
Total USDC held over time — pure buyback inflow (no outflows recorded).
Actual on-chain
Projected pace
Range (soft–hot)
Drag either endpoint to tune pace
Growth per Interval
See how much the treasury added in each window and whether the rolling average is bending.
Interval added
4-period rolling avg
| Period | Start | End | USDC Added | Δ % | Avg / day |
|---|
Historical Health fees · OI · speed
One read for whether the venue is getting healthier: OI/capacity, implied spread fees, and the actual daily earning speed.
Fees vs Open Interest
Real daily data: OI from DeFiLlama; recent spread-payment estimates use treasury revenue ÷ the observed 20% share. Indexed to 100 at the start.
Open interest
Treasury fees (30D)
Fee yield on OI
Earning Velocity
Not the total — the speed it earns at. A rising line means the treasury is stacking faster over time.
Daily added bars
7-day avg line
Perp DEX Positioning
Variational, Lighter, and Extended are compared on matched windows. Hyperliquid is shown separately as the market ceiling.
Bottom line
Capacity favors Variational. Revenue favors Lighter.
Booked revenue reflects each protocol's payout model. Variational's latest three reports send 20% of gross spreads to treasury; the remainder covers costs, rewards, and OLP PnL. Lighter keeps about 78% of the fees it collects.
Market rank#-loading market data
Open interest-loading
30D fee pool-loading
30D booked revenue-current monetization lead
Hyperliquid benchmarkScale ceiling, not a direct peer-open interest
-24H volume
-30D revenue
Variational vs Lighter vs Extended
Capacity, activity, fee pool, and booked revenue on matched windows. Extended's Dune total is a source check, not a 30D input.
How these numbers are calculated
Weekly fee poolTrailing 8 matched 7-day windows
Variational
Lighter
Extended
Open Interest Leaderboard
Top 15 perpetual DEXs ranked by current open interest. Variational is highlighted so its market position is visible immediately.
Variational positionloading
Implied Valuation
The model estimates circulating market cap from open interest. Listed tokens reveal the premium or discount investors currently pay.
Model-implied Variational MCAP
$—
Based on current OI $—. $VAR is pre-TGE, so this is not a traded value.
Gap to Hyperliquid
-
Comparing Variational's model value with Hyperliquid's current market cap
Model-implied FDV
$—
Assumes 25% circulating float. Range — across 20-33%.