Variational ScannerVariational MoneyBuilt by @0xdefidaniel
Arbitrum · USDC 0x5e91…d645 ↗ Daily reset 00:00 ET
Open ↗
24H Volume current activity
Open Interest market capacity
Implied Spreads treasury ÷ share
On-chain protocol treasury balance
12H
24H
7D
snapshot
Dashboard
24H VOLUME OPEN INTEREST TREASURY
LIVE DATA
Variational
Variational MoneyTAKE US TO VARHALLA
CONTROL INDEX · LIVE PROTOCOL DATA
SYSTEM ONLINE
CURRENT PROTOCOL STATE

USDC held in the on-chain protocol treasury. Select a workspace to inspect the activity, economics, and assumptions behind this number.

CUMULATIVE USDC ON-CHAIN
24H trading volume
Open interest
Latest day
Trailing 7 days
Trailing 30 days
30D daily pace
OPERATING INTELLIGENCE

What is happening now

Short windows show the current earning speed. Market windows show the activity supporting it.

Current ET hourEarned so far
Rolling 12 hoursNet treasury inflow
Rolling 24 hoursNet treasury inflow
Rolling 7 daysNet treasury inflow
7D trading volumeDaily observations
30D trading volumeDaily observations
Month-to-date treasuryCurrent ET month
Current treasury heldOn-chain USDC
PRIMARY SOURCEArbitrum treasury wallet
OPERATING SOURCEOfficial biweekly reports
MARKET SOURCEOfficial API and DeFiLlama

Protocol Value Monitor

24H Volume Open Interest Wallet 0x5e91…d645
LIVE DATA
On-chain treasury accumulation

Net USDC held on-chain. This is the clearest observable record of protocol value accumulating in the treasury wallet.

Daily VAR News · X-ready protocol update

Syncing Variational's current state…

Combining net treasury wallet inflow with live volume and open interest.

Waiting for live sources SYNCING
Numbers behind the postEvery figure quoted above, with its source and comparison window.
Daily Spread Fees · implied Waiting for report share Gross spreads paid by traders
Latest ET net treasury inflow Waiting for completed close Minimum buyback-burn floor —
Daily OLP-side $ · implied Spread pool after treasury share Before market-making costs, rewards, and OLP PnL
Rolling 24H volume Official live stats Trading activity now
Live open interest Official live stats Capital active in positions
Treasury added · 7D — per ET day Net change in the on-chain USDC balance
Protocol treasury held — over trailing 30D Live on-chain balance
X-ready post · fundamentals0 / 280
Syncing the daily brief…
Verify the numbersOpen the primary or methodology source for each metric
Treasury balance + ET revenue

Live USDC held by the protocol treasury. Daily revenue is the balance change between exact 00:00 ET closes.

Latest completed ET close
Rolling 24H volume + live OI

Current rolling volume and open interest returned by Variational's official public stats endpoint.

Waiting for live API timestamp
Historical volume + OI

Daily UTC observations used for comparisons and the historical market-activity chart.

Waiting for latest daily observation
Revenue share + burn floor

Daily gross spreads equal net treasury inflow divided by the report-observed treasury share. OLP-side dollars are the remainder before market-making costs, rewards, and OLP PnL. The burn figure applies the stated 30% minimum to treasury inflow.

Latest official report window
Signal: revenue versus its prior 7D average, supported by volume and OI changes versus their latest daily observations.

Roadmap Tracker to the promise land

A clean read of the official Variational roadmap: what has shipped, where the project is on the path, and what gates are still ahead.
Q1 2025 Private mainnet · referral (limited)
Q2 2025 Leaderboard · PnL cards · referral full
Q3 2025 Leverage · liq prices · TP/SL · Omni v2
Q4 2025 Tighter spreads · triggers · points
Undated · shipped Read-only API · mobile · CSV · RWA P1
2026 · Omni v3 UI rework ✓ · isolated margin ✓
1 2026 · Swaps & APIs Swaps P2 ✓ · P3 · partial fills · API trading
2 2026 · Launch era Public mainnet · $VAR · OLP vault · Pro
202514/14 dated shipped
+5 undated ✓

Q1 2025 2/2

  • Omni private mainnet launch
  • Limited launch of Omni referral program

Q2 2025 3/3

  • Leaderboard page
  • PnL cards
  • Full launch of Omni referral program

Q3 2025 4/4

  • Configurable leverage
  • Display estimated liquidation prices
  • TP/SL triggers on quoted, mark, or index
  • Major UI rework ("Omni v2")

Q4 2025 5/5

  • Quoting upgrade to tighten spreads
  • New order type: trigger
  • Enabled referral reward claims
  • Drag & drop TP/SL/Limit/Trigger on chart
  • Launch of the Omni points program

Undated · already shipped 5/5

  • Enable read-only Omni API
  • Improved mobile experience
  • CSV data exports
  • Initial launch of RWA markets ("Phase 1")
  • Improved portfolio page analytics
Living roadmap8/16 complete · 8 left

Undated backlog · docs order slotted 2026

  • Major UI rework ("Omni v3")
  • Isolated margin
  • Launch swaps ("Phase 2")
  • Partial fills of limit orders
  • Enable API trading
  • Protocol statistics page
  • Enable 24/7 trading of swaps ("Phase 3")
  • Omni public mainnet launch
  • Launch of the $VAR token
  • Open community vault for OLP
  • Launch of Variational Pro
Major UI rework, isolated margin and swaps ("Phase 2") are marked complete — swaps shipped in v0.32.2, reported 2026-09-05. The remaining eight items are still undated; this board keeps them in the exact order listed by the docs.
Embedded snapshot · Variational Docs Roadmap. Checking the official living roadmap…
Protocol money map
Core OLP Vault quotes liquidity and absorbs trading flow. The non-treasury portion funds market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL; the vault balance itself is not company revenue. 0x74bbbb…1f2cd ↗ Implied gross spreads, estimated from daily treasury inflows using the latest report-observed share available on each date. Before comparable reports, the model uses the 10% Docs rate. Protocol Treasury — current on-chain USDC balance. Balance changes are a transparent inflow proxy, but internal transfers or withdrawals may not be operating revenue. 0x5e91…d645 ↗ Settlement Pool Factory creates settlement pools. It is infrastructure, not a direct revenue wallet. 0x0F820…074C ↗
syncingCore OLP Vault USDC
Core wallet USDC movement transfers + PnL · not a loss metric
1Dsyncing
7Dsyncing
30Dsyncing
Negative = USDC left this address. Capital can move to settlement pools or external hedge venues, so this is not OLP PnL or total TVL.
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Core OLP Vault)
current treasury balance
Completed ET growth exact daily closes
1Dsyncing
7Dsyncing
30Dsyncing
Formula: USDC balanceOf(Protocol Treasury)
30D avg net inflow / day Formula: (current balance - balance 30D ago) / 30
implied gross spreads · modeled Formula: daily net inflow / period-specific observed share
Daily treasury change Checking the latest completed ET day Large-move alert: ±25% and at least $5K versus the prior day or prior 7-day average.
CHECKING
Latest completed dayWaiting for daily close
Vs previous day
Vs prior 7D average
Variational protocol treasury

The treasury
keeps growing.

USDC accumulated on-chain from Variational's protocol revenue cut. Start with the money earned, then see the activity that produced it.

Verify on Arbiscan
On-chain treasury balance Syncing live wallet
Latest completed dayNet wallet inflow
Trailing 7 daysNet wallet inflow
Trailing 30 daysNet wallet inflow
02 · How the money moves

Trading activity becomes treasury revenue.

Treasury inflow is directly measured from the on-chain wallet. Gross spreads and the OLP side are estimates based on the report-observed protocol share.

Trading activityRolling 24H volume
Trader spread poolModeled gross spreads
OLP sideBefore costs and OLP PnL
Protocol treasuryLatest completed day
Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.
Today’s VAR Pulse · why open this dashboard

Daily state check, not just charts.

Syncing treasury, volume, open interest, and market position into one operating read.

Latest completed ET close
Today’s read
Syncing

Waiting for the latest treasury close and live market activity.

Treasury · Volume · Open Interest · Buyback floor
Treasury inflow score

Scores activity, depth, treasury conversion, and burn firepower.

Volume OI Inflow Burn
Milestone watch

Next treasury milestone is calculated from the current 7D pace.

On-chain treasury only
Investor read

Where Variational sits versus Lighter, Extended, and the perp DEX market.

Comparison uses live/snapshot peer OI and current activity.
What to watch next
  • Waiting for live stats.
ET earnings workspace · live · — ET

Treasury Inflow and Implied Spreads daily totals

Inflow is the treasury wallet change · Spreads are estimatedwhat these mean

Data policy: Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Implied gross spreads use allocation ratios observed in official biweekly reports. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.

Net treasury inflow is the change in USDC held by Variational's on-chain treasury wallet. It is directly measurable on Arbiscan, but non-revenue transfers could also change the balance.

Implied gross spreads are estimated from treasury inflow using the share observed in the official report for that period. Recent reports show ; current Docs still state 10% and say the rate is subject to change.

The non-treasury remainder covers market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL. It is not automatically OLP revenue. A day closes at 00:00 ET; today stays pending until then.

Current ET hour $0.00 Live · earned so far
Rolling 12 hoursNet treasury inflow
Rolling 24 hoursNet treasury inflow
Rolling 7 daysNet treasury inflow
Treasury inflow measured from the on-chain wallet Gross spreads* implied from the official report share
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
less more

Market Activity → Actual Treasury Earnings exact DeFiLlama series

Volume and open interest show activity and market depth. The green row shows net USDC added to Variational's treasury wallet; it is a measurable inflow proxy, not audited accounting revenue.
Syncing exact data…
Live rolling 24h volumeofficial Variational API
Live open interestofficial Variational API
7 daily volume observationsDeFiLlama daily UTC
30 daily volume observationsDeFiLlama daily UTC
Net treasury inflowOn-chain USDC balance deltas · non-revenue transfers may affect the result
Trailing 7 dayscurrent balance minus 7 ET days ago
Trailing 30 daysnet wallet balance increase
Month to datecurrent ET calendar month
Current treasury balancecurrent on-chain USDC held
Perp Volume · daily barsleft axisOpen Interest · daily close lineright axis
Exact values: hover any date for the full USD figures. Historical observations are grouped at UTC day boundaries; live volume is a rolling 24-hour value and is intentionally labeled separately. Sources: DeFiLlama chart ↗ · adapter code ↗

Treasury Inflow Run-Rate valuation proxy

Treasury inflow is measured from changes in the on-chain USDC wallet balance. Implied gross spreads use allocation ratios observed in official biweekly reports. Non-revenue transfers and exact policy-change dates are not independently verified.
MTD VIEWCurrent month-to-date
READ THIS FIRSTWindow activity → real money earned → valuation fuelMTD
1D PERP VOLUMEselected trading flow
+
OPEN INTEREST · LIVE SNAPSHOTcapital kept active in positions
1D IMPLIED GROSS SPREADSestimated from report-observed share
1D NET TREASURY INFLOWselected wallet balance change
theoretical minimum buyback allocationinflow × 30% Docs floor · not executed burn
volume per $1 implied gross spread
volume per $1 net treasury inflow
TVL ex-hedging · official biweekly
OI turns over per day
Reported TVL is compared with live OI capital-efficiency context · $1 of reported TVL supports of daily volume · implied selected-window spreads = of TVL. TVL excludes hedging accounts and comes from the dated official biweekly report; OI is a live snapshot, so this is contextual rather than a same-timestamp accounting ratio. Cross-check: Dune · Entropy Advisors. Not financial advice.
Is the exchange getting better at making money? Green up means more net treasury inflow. Purple down means less volume was needed per $1 of inflow. Both are wallet-based proxies.
Treasury inflowSelected net treasury inflow. Wallet transfers can affect this number.
EfficiencyVolume needed for $1 to treasury. Lower means the exchange monetizes flow better.
What to watchBest setup: green line rising while purple line falls.

Official Operating Reports published every 2 weeks

One answer first: is the exchange getting bigger, and is it keeping more money after costs? Every published number remains available below.
1. Is it growing?Look at trading volume, open interest, TVL, and users. Bigger numbers usually mean more people and money are using the exchange.
2. Is it making money?Traders pay spreads. Subtract market-making costs and rewards. What remains is net profit.
3. Is cash really arriving?Treasury means real USDC held by the protocol. The on-chain check verifies that wallet separately.
1
Official reportMetrics copied from Variational's biweekly X post. New posts are appended, never overwritten. Open official post search
2
On-chain checkSix consecutive 14-day treasury inflow windows calculated from the Arbitrum USDC balance history. This updates without waiting for a post.
Latest Report Verdictgrowth and momentum at a glance
How $1 Became Profitlatest completed 2-week report
Same-report operating snapshotscale, users, OLP, and treasury
What Changed Since the Last Reportprevious report → latest report
Eight Numbers That Tell the Storycurrent value · change since first comparable report · change vs previous report
Full Research Atlas18 original views from the 20-report analysis, updated with every new disclosure

Growth is real. Cost quality is the open question. These views reconstruct every chart and infographic from the full research article using the stored official reports.

Read the original analysis ↗
Real Cash Added Every 14 DaysUSDC entering the treasury wallet before the next report arrives
Full Evidence Libraryevery published number, definition change, and original report date
Every Metric Over Timehover a point to read its official report date and value
How to read this: Green ↑ means the number went up. Pink ↓ means it went down. Up is not always good: costs and refunds are better when lower. Older reports used “2-week Revenue”; newer reports show trader spreads, costs, and profit separately, so those lines are not mixed.
All Official Reports, Side by Sidenewest first · each value includes its change from the previous matching report
Open One Complete Reportchoose a date to see every single number published that day

Implied Spreads money circuit

One view for the whole engine: volume creates customer spread payments and open interest shows capacity. The latest three official reports put exactly 20% of gross spreads into treasury; the docs page still says 10%, so this model clearly labels the observed rate.
Money enters the venue
30D volume
open interest
Trading activity feeds the spread pool.
Implied spread payments
treasury accumulated ÷ observed 20% share
Protocol treasury
20% of gross spreads in the latest 3 reports
Buyback-burn firepower
30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR
FLOW: market activity → trader spread fees → Variational treasury → future $VAR buyback-burn firepower.

Customer $1 Spread → Buyback Burn unit economics

The only unit-economics view that matters: one customer spread dollar, the treasury cut, and the activity needed to produce it.
Customer pays
$1.00
spread paid on a trade
Operating remainder
$0.80
funds market-making costs, rewards, and residual OLP PnL
+
Protocol treasury
$0.20
observed in the latest three official reports
Buyback-burn firepower
$0.06
30% of treasury revenue earmarked for $VAR
Trading volume needed to create $1 of trader spread paymentselected volume ÷ implied spread payments
Open interest needed to create $1/day of trader spread paymentOI ÷ implied daily spread payments
Current buyback-burn firepower loaded per daydaily treasury revenue × 30% burn floor
Across the latest three official updates, a customer’s $1.00 gross spread sent $0.20 to treasury. At the current 30% burn floor, that implies at least $0.06 of buyback-burn firepower. The near 50:50 split applies only to net profit after costs and rewards, not to gross spreads.

The Math 수식 · every implied number, derived

Only 2 measured inputs and 2 protocol constants drive the whole engine — every "implied" figure is one of these equations with the live value plugged in. Verify each line.
T = treasury USDC on-chain V = 30D perp volume Q = open interest s = observed treasury share of spreads 0.20 b = burn floor 0.30 subscript ₃₀ = trailing-30-day amount
Spread fees paid by tradersF = Ts=
Non-treasury operating poolFops = FT = T(1−s)s=
Buyback-burn firepowerB = b·T=
Effective spread take-rateτ = F30V × 10⁴=
Volume for $1 in spread feesVF30 = s·VT30=
Volume for $1 bought & burnedVB30 = Vb·T30=
OI for $1/day in spread feesQF30 / 30=
OI for $1/day burnedQB30 / 30=
Per $1 customer spread: 1−s = $0.80 operating pool+ s = $0.20 treasury s·b = $0.06 burn floor

② Fee per trader Dune · entropy_advisors

Average fee paid per unique trader = cumulative fees ÷ unique traders. Dune's live API needs a key, so paste the trader count from the dashboard and it computes instantly:
avg total fees / trader
to treasury / trader
volume / trader (30d)

Points / FDV Calculator airdrop scenario

Sep 31 does not exist, so this uses the actual campaign deadline: Sep 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Your points ÷ total pool = share; share × FDV × airdrop allocation = estimated value.
Time left to deadline
Ends Sep 30, 2026 · 11:59PM ET
elapsed
Pepe mascot
FDV scenario
TGE circulating supply assumption
20%— MCAP
25%— MCAP · base
30%— MCAP
Each MCAP = selected FDV × tokens circulating at TGE.
Edit this FDV scenario 74% of HYPE FDV
EDIT · DRAG TO CHANGE
20% airdrop
25% airdrop
30% airdrop

How this is calculated for the team to verify

Every number above is derived from two public sources — verify each step:
Fees / revenueTreasury balance on-chain (Arbitrum USDC 0x5e91…d645 ↗), sampled daily via archive RPC. The latest three official reports show treasury = exactly 20% of gross spreads, so current spread estimates use revenue ÷ 0.20. The docs page currently says 10% and subject to change; that conflict is disclosed rather than averaged away.
Perp volume & OIHistorical daily values come directly from DeFiLlama's public /v2/chart/derivatives/protocol/variational and /v2/chart/open-interest/protocol/variational series. Live rolling-24h volume and OI come from Variational's official /metadata/stats endpoint, which is also the source used by DeFiLlama's adapter.
Volume → $1 spreadvolume_30d ÷ spreads_30d where spreads_30d = revenue_30d ÷ 0.20 using the latest observed share. Take-rate (bps) = spreads ÷ volume × 10000.
Volume → $1 burnedvolume_30d ÷ (revenue_30d × 0.30) — burn is ≥30% of revenue.
OI → $1/dayOI ÷ (revenue_30d ÷ 30). Annual yield on OI = daily_rev × 365 ÷ OI.
Distance to HL(HL_metric ÷ VAR_metric − 1) × 100%. Comparison tab uses Perpetual Pulse OI and volume snapshots.
Fee per tradercumulative_fees ÷ unique_traders (traders from Dune).
Points calcmy_points ÷ total_pool × FDV × airdrop_%. Point value = output ÷ my_points.

Cumulative Accumulation

Total USDC held over time — pure buyback inflow (no outflows recorded).
Actual on-chain Projected pace Range (soft–hot)
Drag either endpoint to tune pace

Growth per Interval

See how much the treasury added in each window and whether the rolling average is bending.
weekly
Interval added 4-period rolling avg
PeriodStartEndUSDC AddedΔ %Avg / day

Historical Health fees · OI · speed

One read for whether the venue is getting healthier: OI/capacity, implied spread fees, and the actual daily earning speed.

Fees vs Open Interest

Real daily data: OI from DeFiLlama; recent spread-payment estimates use treasury revenue ÷ the observed 20% share. Indexed to 100 at the start.
Open interest Treasury fees (30D) Fee yield on OI

Earning Velocity

Not the total — the speed it earns at. A rising line means the treasury is stacking faster over time.
Daily added bars 7-day avg line
MARKET DECISION ROOM

Perp DEX Comparison

Read the market in four layers: scale, activity, capital efficiency, and valuation. Metrics that do not share an accounting basis are deliberately separated.

01 · SCALEHIGH CONFIDENCE

Calculating current OI position and market share.

02 · ACTIVITYHIGH CONFIDENCE

Comparing volume generated per dollar of open interest.

03 · EFFICIENCYMODELED

Estimating trader-fee capture from matched 30-day windows.

04 · VALUATIONMODEL

Mapping current OI to an implied circulating market cap.

Bottom line

Compare activity first. Read what each protocol keeps on its own basis.

OI and volume are comparable market metrics. Variational wallet inflow and Lighter protocol revenue are different measurements, so this page does not declare a revenue winner from them.

Market rank#-loading market data
Open interest-loading
30D fee pool-loading
30D kept by protocol-different definitions · shown side by side
Hyperliquid benchmarkScale ceiling, not a direct peer
-open interest
-24H volume
-30D revenue

Variational vs Lighter vs Extended

OI and volume use matched windows. Fee pools and the amount each protocol keeps retain their source labels because the accounting definitions differ by venue.

How these numbers are calculated
Weekly trader fee poolEight complete 7-day periodsVAR Arbitrum treasury wallet + official Biweekly allocation ratios · Lighter / Extended DeFiLlama Fees
Variational Lighter Extended
NORMALIZED COMPARISON

Capital Efficiency

Absolute size can hide operating quality. These ratios put every venue on the same unit basis; modeled values remain marked.

Comparable OI and volume use the same market snapshot. Modeled Variational fee pool is inferred from treasury allocation. Do not compare wallet inflow is not booked protocol revenue.

Open Interest Leaderboard

Top 15 perpetual DEXs ranked by current open interest. Variational is highlighted so its market position is visible immediately.

Variational positionloading
loading market snapshotloadingCoinGecko source ↗

Implied Valuation

The model estimates circulating market cap from open interest. Premium or discount means actual token MCAP versus this statistical model, not versus FDV.

Model-implied FDV
$—
MCAP ÷ TGE float · 25% base · range
Model-implied MCAP
$—
From current OI $— · 25% TGE base
Gap to Hyperliquid
-
Model MCAP versus Hyperliquid MCAP
WHAT MUST BE TRUE?

Float × Model Scenario

FDV changes mechanically with circulating float. Columns apply a conservative, base, and expansion case around the model-implied market cap.

Scenario values are model outputs, not price targets.

Model, sources, and limitations
TRADITIONAL MARKETS

The TradFi Book

Both venues list traditional markets. The question is how much of each venue actually is one. Every figure here is measured the same way on both sides — taker long plus taker short, from each venue's own API — and cross-checked against the TradFi section Entropy publishes on arbdata.

01 · HOW MUCH OF THE BOOK IS TRADITIONALMEASURED
Traditional share of open interest — Variational vs Lighter

Reading both books.

02 · HOW MUCH OF THE FLOWMEASURED
Traditional share of 24-hour volume — VAR vs LIT

Reading both tapes.

03 · WHAT IS ACTUALLY LISTEDMEASURED
Traditional markets on Variational, of all markets listed

Counting the shelf.

04 · WHO TAKES THE OTHER SIDEMEASURED
Net long skew across the single-name equity book

Reading the imbalance.

01 · THE BOOK

How much of each venue is traditional

Two books on one dollar axis, each split into its traditional and its crypto half. Both are the gross basis — taker long plus taker short — which is what arbdata's own per-market rows sum to. Lighter is measured identically from its own API, across all its markets rather than the four visible in its top ten.

CROSS-CHECK

Comparing the published figure with an independent classification.

02 · WHAT IS IN IT

Metals, energy, index funds, single names

"TradFi" on most venues means a gold market and an S&P tracker. Here it is four distinct asset classes with real depth in each, including three pre-IPO markets that have no equivalent on any order-book venue.

Gold is the anchor — $61.1M of open interest, more than a quarter of the entire traditional book, and the single most traded market on the venue after Bitcoin and Ether. Entropy's cumulative view puts commodities at 56.1% of all TradFi volume ever traded here, equities at 28.4% and ETFs at 15.5%.

03 · WHO TAKES THE OTHER SIDE

The demand is one-directional

This is the part that decides whether a venue can carry traditional markets at all. Nobody shorts Alphabet on a perp DEX. The long side is crowded, the short side is thin, and something has to hold the difference.

WHY IT MATTERS

An anonymous order book only makes a market where both sides show up. Where they do not — a single-name equity that everyone wants to own and nobody wants to short — there is no book to trade against, and the market either goes unlisted or sits empty.

Variational is bilateral: the OLP is the counterparty to every taker position, so it absorbs the imbalance directly onto its own balance sheet. That is why 73 single names can be listed here and why the equity book runs at +41.8% net long without breaking.

It is also the honest cost of the model. That skew is real inventory risk carried by the pool, and it is the number to watch if this book keeps growing.

Traditional turnover vs crypto Volume per dollar of book, per day. Traditional positions turn over more slowly than crypto ones on the same venue — held rather than farmed — though the gap on any single day is modest.
The one they are fading MSTR −70.8% Strategy Inc is the only large traditional market where the book is net short. Everything else on the shelf is a crowded long.
04 · WHAT IT COSTS

Execution, including the part that cuts against us

Variational's API publishes a quoted base spread for every market. Lighter publishes an all-in cost for a $100K Bitcoin trade. These are not the same measurement and are shown separately for that reason — but anyone comparing the two venues will look at both, so both are here.

Crypto majors quote inside 1.3 bps. The traditional shelf sits between 2.6 and 5.3 — wider, which is what a market with one-sided demand and an inventory-carrying counterparty should cost.

Cost to trade $100K of BTC · Lighter's published grid

Lighter is genuinely cheap and it is their number, not ours — 1.1 bps all-in against Hyperliquid's 5.1. Variational's quoted base spread on Bitcoin is 1.08 bps, which lands in the same band, but a quoted spread is not slippage at size. Read it as parity not yet disproved, not as a win. Read 2026-08-27 from app.lighter.xyz/stats.

05 · READ THIS FIRST

What these numbers cannot carry

Stated before anyone else states it.

  1. The basis is gross, not the headline. Every open-interest figure here is taker long plus taker short. Variational's own headline number is twice this because it also counts the OLP's mirror of every position. Lighter is measured the same gross way, so the comparison holds — but do not set these figures next to a headline from either venue without saying which basis you are on.
  2. The classification is ours. All 545 listings were sorted into traditional and crypto by ticker and instrument name, not by a category either venue reports. It lands within half a point of the figure Entropy publishes, which is reassuring rather than conclusive.
  3. Tokenised gold sits in neither column. XAUT and PAXG carry $49.3M of open interest — gold exposure in a crypto wrapper. Counting them as traditional would move Variational's share from 31.0% to 37.8%. They are excluded here because Entropy excludes them.
  4. One day, one reading. These are snapshots taken 2026-08-27. Open interest moves, and a single heavy day in gold moves the turnover figures noticeably.
  5. Skew is a risk as well as a moat. A +41.8% net long equity book means the OLP is carrying that exposure. It is what lets these markets exist and it is also the thing that would hurt most in a sharp drawdown.
  6. Spread is not slippage. A quoted base spread and an executed cost at $100K are different measurements. Until Variational publishes taker slippage at stated sizes, the execution comparison stays incomplete.
SOURCES
  • Variational omni-client-api.prod.ap-northeast-1.variational.io/metadata/stats — 545 listings, taker long/short, base spread and funding per market
  • Lighter mainnet.zklighter.elliot.ai/api/v1/orderBookDetails — 230 perps, open interest × mark price
  • Published arbdata.com/variational/tradfi — Entropy Advisors, TradFi share, category splits and the per-market gross table
  • Lighter cost grid app.lighter.xyz/stats
PRE-TGE VALUATION ROOM

Pre-TGE Comparison

Lighter is the one perp DEX that ran the same kind of pre-TGE points program and then let a market put a number on the result. This tab reads Variational against that run day-for-day, checks whether the two books are even quoted on the same basis, and uses what was actually paid for Lighter at its TGE to bound what Variational's could be worth.

01 · WHAT LIGHTER WAS WORTHMEASURED
LIT fully diluted, on its TGE day

Reading Lighter's TGE pricing.

02 · WHO HOLDS THE BIGGER BOOKMEASURED
Variational's open interest vs Lighter's

Comparing both books on a confirmed basis.

03 · WHOSE MARKET WAS HARDERMEASURED
Days Bitcoin sat below its high — VAR vs LIT

Measuring the market each program was built in.

04 · WHAT VARIATIONAL COULD BE WORTHMODEL
Implied fully diluted, base case

Applying the comparable to Variational's book.

01 · THE TAPE

The market each one was handed

Real BTCUSDT daily candles from Binance over each venue's own 252 days, with that venue's book directly underneath on the same day axis. Both price panels share one dollar scale and both book panels share another, so the columns read against each other. Shaded stretches are days Bitcoin spent more than 15% below its running high.

VariationalVariational2025-12-17 → day 252 · still pre-TGE
82.2%of days below the high
BTCUSDT · 1D · BINANCE
BTC over the window−9.5%peak to trough−39.5%
Variational open interest
book over the window+67.6%average$943M
day 0day 63day 126day 189day 252
LighterLighter · Season 12025-01-18 → day 252 · TGE 94 days later
21.3%of days below the high
BTCUSDT · 1D · BINANCE
BTC over the window+4.9%peak to trough−28.1%
Lighter open interest
book over the windowfrom zero · n/maverage$302M
day 0day 63day 126day 189day 252
BTC up day BTC down day Bitcoin more than 15% below its running high Hover a column for the day's open, high, low, close and the book that day.
02 · THE GATE

Are the two books even the same measure?

Every number above rests on this. Variational's reported open interest counts both sides of every position. If Lighter's did not, the comparison would be off by a factor of two and the book claim would invert. Both venues' own APIs answer it.

VERDICT

Same basis, so the comparison stands. Both venues publish two-sided open interest and DeFiLlama passes both through unchanged — Variational's API figure and its DeFiLlama print differ by 0.4%, Lighter's by 1.8%. On the published basis the books are $1.44B against $1.12B; on the one-sided basis taken from each venue's own API they are $718M against $489M. Variational leads on either, by 1.29× or 1.47×.

The one thing this does not settle: Lighter publishes no statement of its convention, so the two-sided reading is inferred from the ratio, not quoted from documentation. It is a strong inference — no market on the venue reads near 1.0× — but it is an inference.
03 · THE MODEL

What Variational's TGE implies

Four ways to carry Lighter's TGE pricing across, each answering a different question about what a book is worth. They disagree by an order of magnitude, and the disagreement is the finding: Variational prices well on capital and badly on flow.

Float × case

The methods produce a fully diluted valuation. Circulating market cap on day one is that number times whatever float the token launches with — the lever Variational has not announced.

Model outputs, not price targets. Lighter's own day-one float was 25%. The Points Calculator tab converts any of these into a per-point value.

04 · READ THIS FIRST

What this comparison cannot carry

Every objection a desk raises about this page, stated before it gets raised.

  1. One comparable is not a comp set. Lighter is the only pre-TGE points program on a perp DEX that has since been priced. A single observation cannot produce a confidence interval, and none is claimed here.
  2. The books do not start alike. Lighter opens at zero — day 0 is the venue's first recorded trade. Variational opens at $859M because Omni Points was announced retroactively over traders already there. Compare levels and averages; growth percentages are meaningless across the pair.
  3. Day 252 means different things. Variational's is 252 days of a program on a running venue. Lighter's is 252 days of the venue's whole existence, most of it an invite-only beta with deposit caps.
  4. The window was chosen by the subject. 252 days because that is where Variational stands today. It moves every day, and the party making the claim set the frame.
  5. Turnover crosses market structures. Variational is bilateral with an OLP; Lighter is an anonymous order book. OLP inventory may enter open interest differently from order-book maker inventory, so part of the turnover gap could be plumbing rather than behaviour.
  6. Volume is protocol-reported. DeFiLlama passes through self-reported figures. Wash and incentivised flow are unaudited on both venues, which cuts for Variational on Lighter's number and against it on its own.
  7. Lighter's TGE price is one venue on one day. It carried a 25% unlocked airdrop with no vesting into a specific December tape. A different supply design or a different month would have printed a different number, and the whole model rests on that one print.
SOURCES
  • Variational omni-client-api.prod.ap-northeast-1.variational.io/metadata/stats — 544 listings, taker long/short per market
  • Lighter mainnet.zklighter.elliot.ai/api/v1/orderBookDetails — 229 perps, open interest × mark price
  • Both books api.llama.fi/v2/chart/{open-interest,derivatives}/protocol/{variational,lighter}
  • LIT price api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/lighter — 240 daily closes since TGE, 1B supply
  • Bitcoin tape api.binance.com/api/v3/klines — BTCUSDT 1d closes